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Téma: No tyres change if weather changes in penultimate lap |
67 odpovědí
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Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,00:00:41 ) Lots of people gained places because better managers used the correct strategy and they soundly oppose the idea. People with good staff should've pitted at 0 laps and the Elite race is there to prove it.
bearing in mind the weather forecast, I don't think you could claim that they had run the correct strategy.
Unless you are saying people have worked out the weather?
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Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,00:00:41 ) Lots of people gained places because better managers used the correct strategy and they soundly oppose the idea. People with good staff should've pitted at 0 laps and the Elite race is there to prove it.
While the OP's idea is a good starting point, his implementation is not good. The correct fix would be to have another box just like "If "Yes" then enter pits only if more than X laps are remaining".
For example: "Change tyres for weather change only if more than X laps are remaining".
This option makes sense and is logical. It will also prevent frustration from BS races like the last one.
True..
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Quote ( Peter Willmore @ September 5th 2015,00:10:40 ) Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,00:00:41 )
Lots of people gained places because better managers used the correct strategy and they soundly oppose the idea. People with good staff should've pitted at 0 laps and the Elite race is there to prove it.
bearing in mind the weather forecast, I don't think you could claim that they had run the correct strategy.
Unless you are saying people have worked out the weather?
Yes, they used the correct strategy if not taking when the weather would change into account.
That it did when it did was pure luck.
It's also the first time I've seen where some managers with worse staff actually end up higher in position because of it (and choosing the for their staff "correct" 1 lap wait option)
I can also see that people having chosen 5+ laps to wait on start of rain before pitting due to chance of the rain stopping fast if it started again also did not go into pits those last laps.
So in luck this time too, but not always a viable strategy.
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Quote ( Jody Parker @ September 5th 2015,00:18:03 ) Yes, they used the correct strategy if not taking when the weather would change into account.
Well not take into account the weather is a pretty bad strategy IMO
bearing in mind the following things
A) no one knew when the rain would stop(if at all) at the start but likely it would stop fairly quick
B) 2nd Qtr there was an increased chance for rain from the first Qtr
C) Third Qtr there was an even further increased chance of rain
So if the rain had come sooner they would not of been on the best strategy.
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Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,00:00:41 ) Lots of people gained places because better managers used the correct strategy and they soundly oppose the idea. People with good staff should've pitted at 0 laps and the Elite race is there to prove it.
While the OP's idea is a good starting point, his implementation is not good. The correct fix would be to have another box just like "If "Yes" then enter pits only if more than X laps are remaining".
For example: "Change tyres for weather change only if more than X laps are remaining".
This option makes sense and is logical. It will also prevent frustration from BS races like the last one.
Thats the option I think should be in. We have it issues so for weather would make sense. After all at any other time I would have been confident that coming in immediately would have been of enough benefit to make it worthwhile but with so few laps my consideration would be different.
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Quote ( Simon Wakefield @ September 5th 2015,00:24:38 ) After all at any other time I would have been confident that coming in immediately would have been of enough benefit to make it worthwhile
the funny thing is in rookie, coming in straight away would of been the wrong option regardless :)
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How'bout just putting in the code that the rain can not start on the penultimate lap.
Much more KISS than the OP :)
On the situation leading to the suggestion here, I think "win some, lose some" (I lost a bit this time). I'm fine with it.
I personally would not advocate for more check-boxes and options change a matter which isn't necessarily faulty.
The current situation (which presented itself in the last race) is purely based on luck, there is no "planning on strategy" even if some hinted it might be.
People who had "wait 1 or 2 laps" had it of habit, from previous races, intended for mid-race changes. It was not planned for this race. It was pure luck.
If the weather change was impossible on the penultimate lap, then people could actually claim to have planned strategy for rain starting close to race end (but not on last 2 laps).
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Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ September 5th 2015,00:51:10 ) But I personally would not advocate for more check-boxes and options change a matter which isn't necessarily faulty. It's an edit box that's needed tbh, not a checkbox :)
I think more options are better for the game. They separate good managers from bad ones and also they help prevent frustration when used correctly.
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The penultimate lap requires different strategy than a typical weather change, IMO.
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Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,01:02:23 ) I think more options are better for the game. They separate good managers from bad ones and also they help prevent frustration when used correctly.
I think not. (necessarily)
For example the kind of options suggested in the OP are quite likely the kind which are just set and then left alone.
for example just input "don't pit if weather changes N-5 laps" and leave it there never to be changed.
There isn't much managing or planning there. It would actually just make things easier.
Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,01:02:23 ) separate good managers from bad ones
That it would not do as it would actually reduce the need for planning.
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Exactly!
Most managers will leave it at -5 and forget about it. And then there will be managers who will calculate the optimal value for each race and those managers will have advantage over the lazy group.
Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ September 5th 2015,01:14:56 ) That it would not do as it would actually reduce the need for planning.
I openly admit I'm not among the good managers out there. How do you plan for rain 1 lap before end of race?
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I see a lot of talk about good or bad "strategy" when it comes to the weather and people who got it right are still being slated for it. In my opinion its a matter of risk. Some of us risked it and some did not. And for risks you either get rewarded or punished. Risks are part of strategy too, they are just... well risky lol.
Good job to all those that took the risk. Awesome strategy. Thumbs up :)
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Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,01:53:09 ) How do you plan for rain 1 lap before end of race?
You don't.
Check post #37
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Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ September 5th 2015,00:51:10 ) People who had "wait 1 or 2 laps" had it of habit
What about people who had "wait 53 laps" set?
Quote ( Krasimir Ivanov @ September 5th 2015,01:53:09 ) How do you plan for rain 1 lap before end of race?
You plan for rain towards the end of the race
Who cares if it is 1 or 4 ... result is same.
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As someone who gained 2 spots to finish 2nd, I vote change nothing! Racing is fun because you never know what could happen. This is on of those things that can happen. Taking away random occurrences, frustrating as they could be, makes the game boring.
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Quote ( Zach Heesch @ September 5th 2015,07:43:19 ) As someone who gained 2 spots to finish 2nd, I vote change nothing!
How much do you want to bet that you wouldn't be saying this if your race was screwed by the rain falling at the penultimate lap?
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Quote ( Daniel Mason @ September 5th 2015,08:02:42 ) Quote ( Zach Heesch @ September 5th 2015,07:43:19 )
As someone who gained 2 spots to finish 2nd, I vote change nothing!
How much do you want to bet that you wouldn't be saying this if your race was screwed by the rain falling at the penultimate lap?
I lost a podium last season because my driver crashed the car with three laps left, frustrating, but it happens. I've also won races that way. I stand by my comments.
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Quote ( Zach Heesch @ September 5th 2015,17:29:11 ) Quote ( Daniel Mason @ September 5th 2015,08:02:42 )
Quote ( Zach Heesch @ September 5th 2015,07:43:19 )
As someone who gained 2 spots to finish 2nd, I vote change nothing!
How much do you want to bet that you wouldn't be saying this if your race was screwed by the rain falling at the penultimate lap?
I lost a podium last season because my driver crashed the car with three laps left, frustrating, but it happens. I've also won races that way. I stand by my comments
Don't mess this with just casual randoms and "bugs" in game engine... If we have so fair game planing why all +1 not pitted at last lap?
I understand that this is game and we MUST accept randoms, but last race was too much...
As i was teached from the very start of my Gpro carrier this is management game and last race was nothing about management. Just simple luck.
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Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,22:56:17 ) As i was teached from the very start of my Gpro carrier this is management game and last race was nothing about management. Just simple luck.
Having an option to avoid a pit in the last X laps is not management either. It's just fairly simple maths.
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Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,22:56:17 ) Just simple luck.
Not entirely...past race history would give the manager knowledge that rain was possible in remaining laps due to the race time being below 1 hr 30. There was a decent chance for rain...so those who planned 0 lap wait made a bad management decision.
You talk about luck, but it would be no different really with it starting 2 laps earlier, it would just mean those who made the (even) better/braver management choice of a longer wait would get the benefit of not pitting at the end of a bigger proportion of the field.
So, the 0 lap guys got caught out this once, I'll not lose sleep knowing that 99% of the time my 1 lap wait in these types of races fails when it starts raining X laps from the end and not Y, or when I pit for dry tyre change and rain comes moments later. Luck doesn't start in this game one lap from the end of a race anyway, there's many luck factors....don't see a reason to remedy something that is a management choice. Seems some people want to remove this management choice and replace it with an equation that ensures the best outcome from X remaining laps and removing the risk element.
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ September 5th 2015,23:28:54 ) those who planned 0 lap wait made a bad management decision.
It's not that bad if you have good pit stops. Yes, it loses when the rain starts a lap before the end, but it wins against 1 lap in other cases.
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Quote ( Jukka Sireni @ September 5th 2015,23:36:58 ) Quote ( Stuart Foster @ September 5th 2015,23:28:54 )
those who planned 0 lap wait made a bad management decision.
It's not that bad if you have good pit stops. Yes, it loses when the rain starts a lap before the end, but it wins against 1 lap in other cases.
Are you saying that it is a decision to manage the risk reward between faster pits on weather changes vs possibly stopping with only a lap or two to go?
Who would have thunk it. Management extends beyond the obvious.
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ September 5th 2015,23:28:54 ) Seems some people want to remove this management choice and replace it with an equation that ensures the best outcome from X remaining laps and removing the risk element.
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Jukka and Stuart please explain why almost Elite managers set "0" ? i hope that they are good managers... :D
I mean all leading managers. I think they are bad enough and don't know how to predict weather and play good strategy..
As I mentioned earlier in like the fun part of the GPRO weather, but last race was too much.
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Quote ( Daniel Douglas @ September 5th 2015,23:39:31 ) Are you saying that it is a decision to manage the risk reward between faster pits on weather changes vs possibly stopping with only a lap or two to go?
It's about the expected value really. Both strategies have good and bad effects. 1 lap has a small chance for a big gain and big chance for a small loss, while 0 laps has the opposite. 2 or more laps is a bit of a gambling option, but if you value that small chance high enough it's possible too.
I had 0 laps, but before the race (after deadline :( ) I was thinking that maybe I should have set 1 lap. Maybe it would have had a slightly better ev.
Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,23:43:00 ) Jukka and Stuart please explain why almost Elite managers set "0" ? i hope that they are good managers... :D
For great pit stops, the expected value of 0 laps is definitely better than 1 lap. I don't have a great td and my staff may be a bit too low too, so for me it was about the same ev I think.
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Well, Donatas, it's a risk element to the game of course and I don't deny its luck, but still a management choice, to stay out longer. Below Pro, or even in Pro with bad staff, waiting 1 lap is faster than waiting 0. I've done a number of 0 lap wait at amateur level (and rookie) on low staff and had pit stops in high 30's and low 40's. With a 1 lap wait, never more than low 30's. It's not faster in all levels for 0 lap wait.
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I'm with you, Donatas. I think the fact most Elite managers, including every former champion, stopped right away is quite telling. Especially since the loss by 1 additional stop was very severe with such a long pitlane. To state all of them aren't good at strategy management is at the very least bold.
Fact is, if you have good staff, you stop right away. Even taking this possible outcome into consideration, because as well as it started raining at L52, it could have started raining at any point between L42 and L51, and in that case, with a lot higher combined probability than rain starting at L52, pitting right away was the right choice for people with good staff, not to mention it could have started raining at any point in the second quarter too with, by the way, around 10 times higher combined probability than rain starting exactly at L52.
Simply speaking, without more strategy flexibility, cases such as this will keep happening and any race with mixed weather will have a lot of luck involded. I'm not particularly saying this should be changed, but arguing the wait 1 lap was a smart and calculated decision isn't probably right. Most people waited 1 lap, including me, simply because waiting 1 lap is what we do when our staff isn't on par.
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Quote ( Jukka Sireni @ September 5th 2015,23:44:28 ) Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,23:43:00 )
Jukka and Stuart please explain why almost Elite managers set "0" ? i hope that they are good managers... :D
For great pit stops, the expected value of 0 laps is definitely better than 1 lap. I don't have a great td and my staff may be a bit too low too, so for me it was about the same ev I think.
So this is a good and calculated decision? BUT system thinks different...
I like random factor in GPRO system, but sometimes.. we want more players in this game right? We wan't more good managers and add some competition, but please not in this style :)
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Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,23:43:00 ) please explain why almost Elite managers set "0" ? i hope that they are good managers
better staff.
Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,23:54:06 ) So this is a good and calculated decision?
It (1 lap wait) was the best decision only for those with weaker staff. I couldn't claim it to be a calculated decision at all myself, I had 1 lap wait on my profile since S41 now ;)
Quote ( Donatas Paplauskas @ September 5th 2015,23:54:06 ) I like random factor in GPRO system, but sometimes.. we want more players in this game right? We wan't more good managers and add some competition, but please not in this style :)
Random is annoying as hell, but...part of the game I guess...I quite liked Mikko's suggestion further up though ( /gb/forum/ViewTopic.asp?TopicId=25461&PostId=3727715#post3727715 ). No rain in penultimate lap into the game code, would still allow those to make risk/reward plans for rain starting earlier than 1 lap to go. It's the only sensible thing I can see that doesn't make things strategically easier (i.e, the suggestion about a check box for not pitting X laps from end, would be).
I'd certainly fully support Mikko's idea their, as it is the simplest solve.
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