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Topic: The GPRO weather thread |
14582 replies
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Quote ( Pedro Nunes @ April 28th 2020,23:07:15 ) Love the usual ass licking that defend what's not debatable. As if you'd win or lose anything for that posture. But hell, karma is a...
You can lead a horse to water ...
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Love the donkey act, just not to being able to grasp the idea of possibly not knowing all ... or worse, owning up to the mistake(s) you make time and time again ...
Even when info is handed to you on a silver platter, you're still in denial ... Better take note of the suggestions, you might pick up a few noteworthy things ...
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Quote ( Jasper Coosemans @ April 28th 2020,23:15:10 ) Quote ( George Togas @ April 28th 2020,21:51:32 )
Rerun now.
NO
LOL
Congrats Jasper!!!
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Quote ( Pedro Nunes @ April 28th 2020,23:07:15 ) Love the usual ass licking that defend what's not debatable. As if you'd win or lose anything for that posture. But hell, karma is a...
Quote ( Pedro Nunes @ April 28th 2020,22:24:13 ) Randoms are disappointing enough but understandable, this isn't.
Being unable to tell exactly what lap the rain stops isn't understandable?
I'm not sure what you class as realistic but I don't know of a meteorologist that can consistently guess when rain stops to within 80 seconds.
Please own up to your mistake of not reading the rules when presented them instead of arrogantly throwing blame elsewhere. It is written in the wiki. Admittingly it could be in a more clear location like a tooltip on the practice page. But if you didn't find it and incorrectly assumed otherwise, this is your fault.
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In PHA era, you planned ahead one whole season, just waiting for every H races matches, and for the 5th time in a row the H oriented race will be in cold weather.
Probabilities can hurt and im strongly inclined to support the ideia that I still will had a puncture till the end.
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Quote ( Pedro Nunes @ April 28th 2020,23:07:15 ) Love the usual ass licking that defend what's not debatable. As if you'd win or lose anything for that posture. But hell, karma is a...
For a man of your GPRO experience (298 races), I am astounded that you still don't grasp the concept of weather in this game.
0% means in that 30 minute window, it will not start raining and if it is raining, it will definitely stop at some point. What is so hard to understand?
If, after 298 races, you cannot comprehend how this works, maybe you have to question if this is for you.
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Oh well sundely everybody is a wiki expert, pardon me for my ignorance!
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Me reading this thread every race where rain chance isn't 0% for all 4 periods
https://media.giphy.com/media/dw2jpsey5a5I4/giphy.gif
What do you do when you must go out and you heard it will be raining sometime in the day ? You have to decide to carry an umbrella or not (one would say, better pick a raincoat)
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Literally no-one complained when it continued to rain for 5 laps into the first quarter at Laguna Seca with essentially the same forecast.
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Quote ( Harsh Sheth @ April 29th 2020,02:24:31 ) Literally no-one complained when it continued to rain for 5 laps into the first quarter at Laguna Seca with essentially the same forecast.
Wiki expert.
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I guess it's because of the word "quarter", which we use to designate a 30min period and doesn't mean a quarter of the race
Yet I've never heard before a F1 race (or any motorsport event) that it will rain from lap 31 and stop raining around lap 52. Only difference is that they react to sudden weather change while we can't.
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- Mr Vlad.!!! Take the Situation in Your Hands.
...if in this Game of Mathematics we don't Respect the Mathematics we Just Accelerate his Drown.
...with Love From Sithonia and If you Visit her this Summer be happy to help you to save it.-
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Quote ( Stéphane Rombaux @ April 29th 2020,02:35:11 ) Only difference is that they react to sudden weather change while we can't. I react too. I say that ............
Quote ( Josh Clark @ April 28th 2020,23:24:10 ) I'm not sure what you class as realistic but I don't know of a meteorologist that can consistently guess when rain stops to within 80 seconds. Meteorologist at the betting office.
He bets it will rain.
- Are you crazy? 0% the probability.
- I know. My own weather forecast.
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Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ April 29th 2020,08:54:53 ) own weather forecast
Sums it up.
One of the unrealistic details of this simulation game. A own system using a... code from common reality. Can obviously be deceiving.
The odds are... managers holding the secret knowledge don't want that the forecast can be known, and not predictable, by the... ignorant. The ignorant... take it.
This is not battle royale but it's a bit "hunt for the mystical powers" to become an elite formula 1 manager type of thing. Find a wizard or join a guild, or both.
Even in Rookie you can't do much with young talent. You have to get some "old" knowledgeable dude to have some chances in a short term. I was expecting some Formula 3 scene. Not a hunt for the secret good driver to be promoted or something.
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Now if I tell you. Rain will stop sometime between 16:30 and 17:00. It's 16:35 and still raining. Is the forecast right or wrong ?
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Quote ( Stéphane Rombaux @ April 29th 2020,20:52:52 ) Now if I tell you. Rain will stop sometime between 16:30 and 17:00. It's 16:35 and still raining. Is the forecast right or wrong ?
I'm not an idiot. You think in vain.
That's not what I was talking about.
"Ridiculous!!
1% -----> 99% means nothing (Only 0% and 100%)
Where is common sense"
I know WIKI.
I don't take an exam; especially at you. :)
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Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ April 29th 2020,08:54:53 ) He bets it will rain.
look at it another way.
If you went to a bookie and said its already raining and the weatherman says he thinks it will stop at 8:30 pm You say you want to place a bet on it no longer raining at 8:31 pm.
The bookie will happily take your fiver off you.
why? because its a forecast.
People just need to understand what is presented to them, and not misinterpreting a percentage as a matter of fact.
0% means not at all likely to START raining (in our race it was already raining going into the final period tho).
It also means it is most CERTAIN to not be raining by the end of the period if it already was before it. (our race ended at 1 hour and 34 mins - nowhere near the 2 hour mark).
Thus, there is no bug or issue to fix with the forecast other than people understanding it correctly.
Where's Robin.... :/
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ April 29th 2020,22:20:38 ) Where's Robin.... :/
Not sure, but I play Batman for once: Sometimes the truth isn’t good enough, sometimes people need more
;)
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ April 29th 2020,22:20:38 ) not misinterpreting a percentage as a matter of fact
Which looks more like a matter of a fact or mere probability when it's going to stop raining?
Rain probability: 98% - 99% or Rain probability: 0%?
We understand, it's... different. I think 1-2% chances and much bigger than 0%. Actually it's math. Not much space for odd (mis)interpretations here.
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Don’t mind me, I’m just waiting for snow and temperatures below 0 degrees Celsius to be added to the game. In the mean time you all enjoy your liquid water issues. :)
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My advice... neither Tibor nor Ze Pedro should go to the casino.
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Not 0% is the topic. Forecasting is not a topic either.
Forecast inaccuracies in some cases:
0-30 'dry ÷ 0%, -60' rain ÷ 98-99%, dry ---> wet change.
If this is not the case, the meteorologist will be unfit. Such a mistake is unforgivable.
Mathematics is not the point in comments. Understand how it works (WIKI).
Let's adjust to life. Meteorologist should not be so wrong (99% ---> 0%).
Common sense is lacking.
Quote ( Roy Mitchell @ April 30th 2020,05:03:52 ) My advice... neither Tibor nor Ze Pedro should go to the casino. Bad advice.
The casino has nothing to do with this. (Mathematical probability calculation. The weather is not. )
(Roulette: The casino doesn’t say the probability of red is now 99%.)
Roy: Have you been to the Casino?
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Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ April 30th 2020,06:21:01 )
Mathematics is not the point in comments. Understand how it works (WIKI).
Let's adjust to life. Meteorologist should not be so wrong (99% ---> 0%).
Common sense is lacking.
Mathematics is not the point, but it's key to understand. You said earlier than anything from 1% to 99% probability doesn't mean anything^^ That's why you should not go to the casino and especially never play poker.
"Let's adjust to life." I have never seen a weather forecast that is accurate to the minute unless it was made less than an hour before with radars;
And it isn't rare in any sports event that weather forecast is just not accurate enough so they deal with uncertainties all the time
And once again, you speak about Wiki but you don't seem to understand what it actually says. Meteorologists in Mexico were 100% right, they were expecting steady rain until at least 1:30 and rain had to stop (100% sure) sometime between 1:30 and 2:00. and it rained during the whole race which lasted 1:34. So what's the problem with it ? Are you frustrated because you miscalculated race duration ?
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Quote ( Stéphane Rombaux @ April 30th 2020,08:30:05 ) Mathematics is not the point, but it's key to understand. You said earlier than anything from 1% to 99% probability doesn't mean anything^^ That's why you should not go to the casino and especially never play poker.
Misunderstanding. It means nothing in the forecast (GPRO).
I know probability calculus perfectly in reality.
Quote ( Stéphane Rombaux @ April 30th 2020,08:30:05 ) "Let's adjust to life." I have never seen a weather forecast that is accurate to the minute unless it was made less than an hour before with radars;
And it isn't rare in any sports event that weather forecast is just not accurate enough so they deal with uncertainties all the time This is true. I didn't say that either. There is an expected margin of error - I miss that. Let there be a margin of error. Change this rigid WIKI rule.
Quote ( Stéphane Rombaux @ April 30th 2020,08:30:05 ) And once again, you speak about Wiki but you don't seem to understand what it actually says. Meteorologists in Mexico were 100% right, they were expecting steady rain until at least 1:30 and rain had to stop (100% sure) sometime between 1:30 and 2:00. and it rained during the whole race which lasted 1:34. So what's the problem with it ? Are you frustrated because you miscalculated race duration ? Who talked about Mexico here?
I calculated perfectly.
I understand the WIKI rule perfectly. I do not think it's good.
*******************************
I keep saying this:
There is an error / error limit in meteorology, which is not 96-99% as it was in S62R9 Kyalami.
That is why I say: this should not be done just mathematically.
I'm not curious about the side talk.
No answer to that? :):):)
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Quote ( Roy Mitchell @ April 30th 2020,05:03:52 ) My advice... neither Tibor nor Ze Pedro should go to the casino.
I can go head to head on a Texas Hold'em against anyone! Anywhere, anytime. :-)
Got lucky on my 5th race because of the... weather. But I just "guessed" the lap when the weather changed when all the ahead of me and 3 other lucky, or not because they all have dozens of races, racers had stopped just in the lap before.
I got it already. I had to go read some corner of the rules/guides about a new communication code. It's all fair and square. Everyone can read it. It's like learning a new language. For the sake of the... old calculator v2.01b01z.
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Quote ( Zé Pedro Paula @ April 30th 2020,16:46:11 ) For the sake of the... old calculator v2.01b01z.
That's no way to talk about Mikko =]
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Whoa! I never thought an off-topic 'joke' would upset so many people. lo
You can figure out what the weather may become with the guides provided and loads of info on the forums.
The realism is 'Gpro realism' rendered my a computer program that does not 'crash' cars in a race. Now how real is that?!
In my estimation it will be another 20 years before Vlad can harness AI to provide the realism that you believe should be in the game.
Please note... I'm not picking a 'fight' and not insulting anyone.
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If GPRO was run by a self-learning AI, we would have 900 races in a season, one every hour, 25 pts for a win, an on-site 100% accurate calculator, and a live pitstop button :)
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