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Topic: The GPRO weather thread |
14582 replies
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Quote ( Paul Bright @ March 12th 2022,17:49:17 ) There is not a direct inversion of the chance of rain stopping from the chance of it starting if it is already raining, so you can't just subtract the rain probability from 100% to get the chance of it stopping.
Yes you can, if it says 10% chance of rain and it is already raining, that means a 90% chance it will stop, it states this in the help section:- /gb/GPRONoobGuide.asp#here-comes-the-rain-again
Rain for Q2 means it will be raining at the start of the race. However it is important to look at the weather forecast for the race before deciding on your starting race tyres. If the forecast says that there is a very low chance of rain in the first 30 minutes of the race it means that the rain will stop, usually after a few laps.
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Quote ( Mike Bennett @ March 12th 2022,18:03:26 ) Yes you can, if it says 10% chance of rain and it is already raining, that means a 90% chance it will stop, it states this in the help section:- /gb/GPRONoobGuide.asp#here-comes-the-rain-again
Rain for Q2 means it will be raining at the start of the race. However it is important to look at the weather forecast for the race before deciding on your starting race tyres. If the forecast says that there is a very low chance of rain in the first 30 minutes of the race it means that the rain will stop, usually after a few laps.
How does that paragraph state that 10% rain chance means a 90% chance of it stopping?
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Quote ( Florencia Caro @ March 12th 2022,17:20:41 )
As you can see the grid has quite a few seasoned veterans on wet compound, waiting for rain to start sooner than later.
This was 1st half hour forecast:
Start - 0h30mTemp: 46° - 51°
Humidity: 78% - 88%
Rain probability: 60% - 70%
Guess what happened with rain that race? :)
I see you fully understand what I mean.
I understand that like any probability there is always a chance that the event will not happen, but I think that GPRO is too random.
Every now and then an event can come out of what is expected, however,I say again that with the data I have collected so far, there is no correlation between the weather forecast and the weather changes during the race and it should! (in my opinion of course...)
Especially when this correlation clearly exists for weather changes at the start of the race.
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Quote ( Paul Bright @ March 12th 2022,17:49:17 ) The last 15 years of forum wisdom has repeatedly stated that the Rain Probability is only the chance of it starting and doesn't directly define (although is related to) when it will stop.
Wiki clearly states that 0% when it's already raining means you can be sure rain will be stopping in that period, I'm unsure how you ended interpreting what was quoted.
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Actually, I'm not sure why everyone seems to keep fretting over the GPRO weather. Controlling the GPRO weather is easy. Ain't nothing to it. I figured out how to do it a long time ago.
At the risk of Flo deleting my post for a violation of GPRO's disclosure rules, I am going to tell you exactly how it works.
1.) When you put Dry tires on your car, it will start raining.
2.) When you put Rain tires on your car, it will stop raining.
3.) The weather will always change within 1 to 3 Laps after your last pit stop.
If you ever think you are not in control of it, look back through you race data.
GPRO weather is always predictable!
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Quote ( Denny Holt @ March 13th 2022,00:39:59 ) Actually, I'm not sure why everyone seems to keep fretting over the GPRO weather. Controlling the GPRO weather is easy. Ain't nothing to it. I figured out how to do it a long time ago.
At the risk of Flo deleting my post for a violation of GPRO's disclosure rules, I am going to tell you exactly how it works.
1.) When you put Dry tires on your car, it will start raining.
2.) When you put Rain tires on your car, it will stop raining.
3.) The weather will always change within 1 to 3 Laps after your last pit stop.
If you ever think you are not in control of it, look back through you race data.
GPRO weather is always predictable!
You are right, but you forgot to add that this feature is only available to those in dire need of a good result in said race. We wouldn't want people to try manipulating the weather without knowing the full intel, Denny...
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Excuse me, but the average rain in Bahrain in March is 10 mm.
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Quote ( Tymoteusz Wojnarowski @ March 17th 2022,20:08:35 ) Excuse me, but the average rain in Bahrain in March is 10 mm.
And it just so happens that this year it's going to fall during Q2 and the race ;).
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Quote ( Tymoteusz Wojnarowski @ March 17th 2022,20:08:35 ) Excuse me, but the average rain in Bahrain in March is 10 mm.
GPRO "March" is around... 8.5 days!?
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Quote ( Ricardo Antunes @ March 13th 2022,00:46:44 ) You are right, but you forgot to add that this feature is only available to those in dire need of a good result in said race. We wouldn't want people to try manipulating the weather without knowing the full intel, Denny...
No, no Ric.
Dire need is what randoms are for! 😉😫
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Emotional Rollercoaster...
Hot race: YES!!!
Rain: NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
Bother!!
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I dont know who bribed Vladmin, but whoever it was: thank you
And this next race is bribing ville again! :P
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Well, if it would have started raining 2 laps earlier, my strategy would be perfect....
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The start of the next race looks like a baller
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Well, that rain for the last two laps was a blessing!
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Quote ( Tymoteusz Wojnarowski @ March 30th 2022,08:04:18 ) Well, that rain for the last two laps was a blessing!
It was actually 4 rain laps :)
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Lots of rain this season please, let’s make it interesting
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Quote ( Jessica Doyle @ April 15th 2022,11:30:53 ) Lots of rain this season please, let’s make it interesting
Well... last race was certainly interesting :P
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Depends on your definition of interesting!!!!
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Define last race. The first?
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Ah, this last race. Didn't rain enough. Too dry. And too many times. This dealer sucked.
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Ohh, this weather.. let the best player win..
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I gained six positions so Im happy with how things turned out. Could habe been even better had it not started raining in the end, I was rooting for a dry finishing stint.
Looking at the forecast for Imola, who is going to gamble by starting on dries?;)
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I have a question here. I had 6 laps of fuel (I started on rains) in pro-22, I pitted at the start of lap 7, and came back in on lap 8 (for dry tires).
However, on Pro15, Gino and Christoph had the same 6 laps and then pitted on rain tires, and didn't have to stop again the next lap (and had dry tire pace).
Is this-Because their pit box was across the start/finish line and the crew magically were able to change the tires going on the car in a matter of millisceconds?
Or- perhaps these managers selected "when it rains" and had a dry tire on the race strategy?
I think it is the second option, but something just doesn't add up.
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All managers pit at the end of the lap.
You had set Rain tyres when it rains, Allan. You pitted at the end of lap 6 when it was still raining. Gino and Christoph used dry tyres when it rains setting, hence when they ran out of fuel, they switched for slicks.
Edit: when in doubt, pay a look to classic race viewer, it's way more clear for these weather changes, specially when you are not in the leader's lap.
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You wanted chaos? There you go, chaos!
You didn't want chaos? Well that's too bad, you're getting DOUBLE CHAOS! :P
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So, which weather change should we discuss about first? We have plenty of them to go through :P
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Today, the meteorologist was again not at the height of the situation.
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Thank you, El Presidente, for making Monaco exciting.
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