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Topic: Rain Probabilities |
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This is maddening! I qualified on pole, and there was supposed to be a 1% chance of rain at the start of the race, and a 0% chance throughout the remainder of the race. Therefore, I decided to start with slicks. Unfortunately, it rained for the first 10 or so laps, which was very misleading, and messed up my race. This is not the first time this has happened. The rain probabilities are VERY misleading, and have perhaps ruined my title chances.
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#2 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:17:52
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:17:17 ) start of the race
Q2 weather is always race start weather mate.
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There was a 100% chance of it raining at the start. Note weather in Q2 and race start match. The forecast made it almost certain to stop in the first quarter.
Check out the Wiki section on weather so you don't make a similar mistake in the future.
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#4 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:20:33
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Just wasted all my energy there. It's going to be a long long race.
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#5 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:20:48
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#6 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:23:31
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Those are only predictions, and no one know how long it will last. There is no guarantee, and when it is rain/dry race, it is always kind of a lottery. :D But yes, it did show that it will rain at start!
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#7 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:28:07
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ January 24th 2017,20:17:52 ) Q2 weather is always race start weather mate.
Damn, I wasn't aware of this. However, indicating that the rain probability is only 0%-1% during the first 30 minutes of the race is quite misleading for rookies such as myself. Thanks for the reply mate.
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#8 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:28:56
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:17:17 ) This is maddening! I qualified on pole, and there was supposed to be a 1% chance of rain at the start of the race, and a 0% chance throughout the remainder of the race. Therefore, I decided to start with slicks. Unfortunately, it rained for the first 10 or so laps, which was very misleading, and messed up my race. This is not the first time this has happened. The rain probabilities are VERY misleading, and have perhaps ruined my title chances.
It is so frustrating! I started dry too, was a gamble and I knew it. It won't ruin your title chances on just race 2, and to be fair, if it rained less and dry tyres worked, it would have ruined the races of everyone who did the other gamble. Just hard luck really.
You will feel better about it tomorrow, I always do after shouting on here then looking again the next day.
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#9 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:30:52
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Quote ( Kirsty Ridley @ January 24th 2017,20:28:56 ) I started dry too, Listen your team mates and get safer :D
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#10 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:31:32
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Quote ( Kevin Parkinson @ January 24th 2017,20:18:31 )
There was a 100% chance of it raining at the start. Note weather in Q2 and race start match. The forecast made it almost certain to stop in the first quarter.
Check out the Wiki section on weather so you don't make a similar mistake in the future.
All right, my bad. Thanks.
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#11 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:31:39
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In fact, rain war really longer than I've expected, so I lost too much time. But it's question of intuition, I think.
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#12 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:41:38
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Quote ( Samoeni Albanalopolis @ January 24th 2017,20:30:52 ) Listen your team mates and get safer :D
Do I know you? :P
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#13 posted Jan 24th 2017, 20:46:20
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Quote ( Leonid Dokutovic @ January 24th 2017,20:31:39 ) In fact, rain war really longer than I've expected, so I lost too much time. But it's question of intuition, I think.
Nah, it's GPRO...no intuition needed. It's a lottery pure and simple. Like picking your tyres before the season, you have no idea what the weather will be.
Today the wet starters put their chips on red and that's what came up. Could just as easily have been black though !
If you think your season is spoilt by this aspect of GPRO then prepare to be disappointed a lot. As Kirsty said, if your package is good enough you can overcome one setback and still promote or get the title or whatever your goal is. It's a setback but loads of people have gambled that weather will turn dry quickly, you won't be the only one.
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#14 posted Jan 24th 2017, 22:22:47
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0% on next one..
I think It could have been better for me if this past race rained for less laps
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#15 posted Jan 24th 2017, 23:16:56
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:17:17 ) The rain probabilities are VERY misleading, and have perhaps ruined my title chances.
At race 2?!
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#16 posted Jan 24th 2017, 23:37:21
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The rain probability is of it starting to rain and as has already been pointed out, Q2 was wet so the start is always going to be wet.... you then throw the dice to determine if the rain is going to be for a long time or a short period. You just have to live or die by your decision. Only 2 races into the season so there`s plenty of time for you to win promotion.
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:31:32 )
This is maddening! I qualified on pole, and there was supposed to be a 1% chance of rain at the start of the race, and a 0% chance throughout the remainder of the race. Therefore, I decided to start with slicks. Unfortunately, it rained for the first 10 or so laps, which was very misleading, and messed up my race. This is not the first time this has happened. The rain probabilities are VERY misleading, and have perhaps ruined my title chances. .
Look at the outcome of my race and then judge :)
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Probably only inexperienced managers started with dry tyres (but there were some exceptions for sure).
Does anyone remember Imola in S16? Very similar conditions at the start and then it rained for 11 laps.
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#19 posted Jan 25th 2017, 00:00:42
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:28:07 ) Damn, I wasn't aware of this. However, indicating that the rain probability is only 0%-1% during the first 30 minutes of the race is quite misleading for rookies such as myself. Thanks for the reply mate.
Rain probability refers to how likely it is to START raining. Star weather is the same as Q2. Once it stopped raining, the probability of rain starting again was 0-1% in the first half an hour of the race.
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#20 posted Jan 25th 2017, 00:08:05
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I've seen rain for just for a few laps with 50%, I've seen tonight with less than 5% and I've seen a lot of races like these even with the start on dry weather.
In these situations it's always a lottery; who picks the luckiest spot goes for glory, who picks the wrong one goes for shame in public. :-)
Apart from jokes .. tonight I learned a lesson, a factor that plays a huge part on these starts; it took me 18 seasons, but I finally learned it. :p
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#21 posted Jan 25th 2017, 00:12:40
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Meteorologist is not infallible. :(
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This race I was lucky all my promotion rivals went for dry tires and I was the only wet at the front. :D
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#23 posted Jan 25th 2017, 09:08:25
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Quote ( Michal Szopinski @ January 25th 2017,00:00:42 )
Rain probability refers to how likely it is to START raining. Star weather is the same as Q2. Once it stopped raining, the probability of rain starting again was 0-1% in the first half an hour of the race.
You realize that's a fallacy right?
If it starts raining 2h before the race and it will stop like 2h or something after the race, then weather information can all be 0% for rain. It's raining, so it will NOT start raining again.... so.. 0% chance to START... :D
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#24 posted Jan 25th 2017, 09:27:01
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Knowing the time loss for being on the wrong tyre and by comparing other similar weather forecasts would have said start on rain tyres.
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#25 posted Jan 25th 2017, 10:12:55
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:28:07 ) indicating that the rain probability is only 0%-1% during the first 30 minutes of the race is quite misleading
this indicates if it will start raining during the 1st 30 mins, it didnt. it doesnt indicate when it will stop. as said q2 weather continues at race start so all was normal. part of being rookie is learning these elements of the game.
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#26 posted Jan 25th 2017, 10:28:13
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Quote ( Michal Szopinski @ January 25th 2017,00:00:42 ) Rain probability refers to how likely it is to START raining. I think it means more than that. Yes, rain probability refers to how likely it is to START raining.
Does it also refers to dry probability of the opposite percentage? Meaning, 0-1% rain probability also refers the rain will stop at probability of 99-100%, if we have rain at start of the said quarter. And hence we have..
Wiki: 0% rain probability means you can be sure that it won't start raining during the period. If it is already raining, you can be sure that it will stop raining during the period, but you don't know when it will happen (it can stop after one minute or after 29 minutes).
What I want to get across here is rain probability is not only refer to START raining probability, but also it also implies STOP raining probability. Right? Please correct me if I am wrong.
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#27 posted Jan 25th 2017, 11:00:21
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Different people will give you different answers on that one Dave.
You have to then make up your mind (from whichever answer you believe to be correct, plus common sense, plus historical scenarios in the game) which is actually correct.....
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#28 posted Jan 25th 2017, 13:27:39
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Robin is right and wiki explenetation too. The percentage in quarter always says about what probability is to stop/start raining in entire quarter so if it is raining and forecast says 0% for raining then you can be 100% sure it will stop rain and vice versa. The only thing you cant know is lap when it stops/starts raining...
but you know probability and according to this information you can make some probability calculations which can tell you approximate data in which lap it can start/stop rain +-
others is just random factor ;)
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#29 posted Jan 25th 2017, 14:44:37
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Quote ( Marcin Milczarek @ January 24th 2017,23:50:10 ) Probably only inexperienced managers started with dry tyres (but there were some exceptions for sure).
Does anyone remember Imola in S16? Very similar conditions at the start and then it rained for 11 laps.
In my pro group only me and ~12 others (so 13/40 started on wets). It was really a gamble. On the other hand. You can never have lost that many time. Maybe ~10-15 secs. In rookie that's far from game changing.
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#30 posted Jan 25th 2017, 15:03:21
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Quote ( Michael Virone @ January 24th 2017,20:17:17 ) ruined my title chances.
i understand you... but don' forget, that the title is only reachable at Elite. I would not consider a Rookie Group Winner, as a person who won a title :-)
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