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Tema: Odd Weather |
28 odgovora
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Anyone noticed that the upcoming race in Bahrain (at least I noticed for Rookie) it with 20's on the degrees of temperature, inspite being July and that the circuit is literally in the middle of the desert? How can we change that for future seasons, to fix that inconsistency?
Do you want to see more realistic weather?
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#2 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 12:58:07
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The race weather forecasts do not take into account the real-world location or season.
You can 40 degrees in Finland and you can get 1 degree in Singapore.
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#3 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:07:35
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Yeah but would it be better if they did. At least with a window of margin with the local region?
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#4 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:11:27
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Then races would be as dull as real life F1
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#5 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:17:17
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#6 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:18:38
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What is even worse is when our GPRo weatherman makes certain predictions ( especially of high rain percentages ), then it turns out completely way of the mark.
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#7 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:21:40
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Yeah I noticed that on the last race. With a 85% chance of rain nothing happens. And then rains with a 0-5% chance....
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#8 objavljeno 29 Srp 2018, 13:25:09
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Eduardo, as you move up the leagues you'll realise that random things like the weather are important to create an element of surprise/random. If the weather was based on real life climate then it will mean players can a lot more easily plan their season if they know there is high chance of X number of hot/cooler races or wet races. You might think right now that being able to plan for things like that would be a lot more beneficial, but when you reach Pro or higher, its small margins that make a difference. If the weather was near-predictable then it would make the results more predictable, which is not very good when you've got things like tyre suppliers to consider. The planning side when it comes to weather is already made easier on new players as everyone below Pro can only run with Pipi tyres, which is great for everyone in amateur and rookie as it does remove tyres as a random factor with regard to weather.
Good luck in the game btw :)
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hihihih Pipi Tyres.
But yeah, that's a fair point. But more variables just make things more hard to get wrong, and widens the competition, instead of bringing it closer.
Do people want close or wider competition races?
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Quote ( Eduardo Fernandes @ July 29th 2018,13:21:40 ) Yeah I noticed that on the last race. With a 85% chance of rain nothing happens. And then rains with a 0-5% chance....
The important thing to understand with the weather is it's exactly as described "chance". If there is even 1% chance of rain, it can rain (it has happened before in a well race known as kyalami-gate). The only time it definitely won't rain is when it is 0% chance. Rather than considering the weather a "prediction" as such, consider it with less certainty than "definitely will not". It only definitely will not rain when it is 0% probability. A probable chance does not mean improbable as long as it is above 0%, but you should of course interpret as "highly unlikely" when probability is low.
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Quote ( Eduardo Fernandes @ July 29th 2018,13:28:33 ) But more variables just make things more hard to get wrong, and widens the competition, instead of bringing it closer.
Do people want close or wider competition races?
Believe me, the higher up the leagues you go, you'll see that players knowledge of the game becomes a lot more vast. More variables are needed as such to mix things up. Now, I might happen to think that tyres have too much influence on the determination of race results, but its also important to recognise that, if there are fewer variables then the chance for a manager in a low midfield (or even lower!) position in the standings to get into the points positions becomes at best extremely challenging...the tyres being how they are allow for surprise/random results to occur with all the different weather/tyre variables that exist. Therefor, having a pre-determined and narrow set of weather variables for each circuit would be bad for the game above amateur with regard to how the game is currently setup with tyres being a major factor with results.
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#13 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 09:33:38
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- The Whether is Perfect.!!!
...the Only thing we need is to Respect the Mathematics of Forecast. I told many times.
...when we say in Mathematics 60% Rain Means of the 10 cases with that forecast 6 we have Rain and 4 no Rain.!!!
...when we see 80% Rain means 2 Races with not Rain.!!! ...but 10 to 10 races Has RAIN.!!!
- To be Honest last 2-3 season the situation about that it's better than Older.
...we Are on good Road and continue on that direction.-
:)
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#14 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 10:03:20
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Quote ( Ioannis Kalogirou @ July 30th 2018,09:33:38 ) ...the Only thing we need is to Respect the Mathematics of Forecast. I told many times.
...when we say in Mathematics 60% Rain Means of the 10 cases with that forecast 6 we have Rain and 4 no Rain.!!!
And you have been told many times...
The weather forecast is not a "fact" and it does not mean it definitely will rain.
You need to see the "%" forecast as what it is,,, "the possibility of rain starting"
Only a 0% possibility is a fact, but only in relation to rain starting, not stopping.
Its not complicated at all Ioannis, it adds variety to the game and I really do hope this will never be changed.
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#15 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 11:46:06
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Quote ( Ioannis Kalogirou @ July 30th 2018,09:33:38 ) ...when we say in Mathematics 60% Rain Means of the 10 cases with that forecast 6 we have Rain and 4 no Rain.!!!
You really have no clue what probability means, do you?
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#16 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 12:10:40
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Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ July 30th 2018,11:46:06 ) You really have no clue what probability means, do you?
??????????????
- Teach me Pls.!!!!!!!!!
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#17 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 12:43:13
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You should look at it in a long time perspective. When tossing a coin, you won't get head/tail/head/tail results. You can even toss 10 heads in a row sometimes. But after 1000 tosses you should be close to 500/500 split.
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- Yes Tomek you have Absolutely Right.!!!
...I gave a simple version of only 10 cases to understand better...
Maybe that 60-40 % to work need 10.000 times.-
...but in our case Why the RAIN on 80% possibility is ALWAYS RAIN.???
...and it's not a few times a Row NO RAIN.!!! ...it's possible too.!!! ...it is't.???
Simply Miel & Atli try to distort my Real Meaning...
it's OK with me, that's the method who use politics.-
:)
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#19 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 13:06:55
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Quote ( Ioannis Kalogirou @ July 30th 2018,12:51:21 ) Atli try to distortion my Real Meaning
That was not at all what i was trying to do.
Tomek explained it well.
Although, there is still a chance of 1000-0, just a very very small one.
But i think you are right on one thing, I dont remember a race with +80% rain prediction, where it didnt rain at all.... It probably happened a few times, I just dont remember it.
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Quote ( Atli Thor Johannesson @ July 30th 2018,13:06:55 ) But i think you are right on one thing, I dont remember a race with +80% rain prediction, where it didnt rain at all.... It probably happened a few times, I just dont remember it.
Well, I've just seen a race where a rain started with 20-30% chances, after 6 full dry races having identical weather prediction :-)
PS. And we don't know exactly how the forecast influence the weather. I think the % is not the only thing that counts.
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hey eduardo, welcome.
in this thread you didn't seem to be satisfied with the obvious answer, and with the very inner sense of reality that defines gpro itself, which is a really well built and internally problematized 12 years old game. due to that feel, i believe, you went deeper with 3 or 4 illations regarding the very consistency of the game. i realized where exactly you came from, wanted to go and i know very well this kind of vocation, a vocation for the highly investigative thought, this restlessness, this interesting mind focused on questioning, this will of penetrating the game and, in the middle of the way, asking yourself "is this perfect? hmm maybe it's not perfect yet". i think stuart, who's been playing this for nearly a decade now, is happy that you, with all of that impetus, considered the one he placed a good point. one other thing i think, however, is that by searching deep in the forum (and also on the wiki and game rules tabs) you will not only find the right solution for each one of your questions- which will turn the earliest illations into mere forgettable thoughts- but you're going to learn a whole lot about the game as well. so here is my advice.
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#22 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 14:24:11
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Just to put it in perspective. My town had "severe weather warnings (amber alerts)" for thunderstorms, flash floods and 20mm-30mm of rain a few weeks ago... result... baking hot sun... not even a breath of wind - it happens in real life too. the weather by it's very nature is fairly unpredictable and so it carries through to GPRO.
Personally I think the GPRO weather forecasts aren't too bad the chances over time do play themselves out just enough to screw with my strategy... you just need to learn to play around with your strategy to try and cover most eventualities. In the end... everyone is affected by the same weather so no real biggy... The results are just based in the way people worked it into their race setups :)
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#23 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 14:34:47
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Quote ( Tomek Kiełpiński @ July 30th 2018,13:30:45 ) Well, I've just seen a race where a rain started with 20-30% chances, after 6 full dry races having identical weather prediction :-)
Agreed Tomek and we have seen that several times before on 10-30% predictions.
I just dont remember any race where it predicted +80% rain,,, without it actually raining... but my memory is pretty bad, so I might well be wrong on this.
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Well given the weather can change at least twice in a 30 min period, that means there almost certainly have to be at least 2 checks of the rain % in that time.....
Rain forecast at 80% - means that for both checks to be 'no rain', the actual % is 0.2*0.2 = 0.04 - so 4%
So totally reasonable for us to never have seen it 'not rain' with those %-ages....
If it is forecast at 90%, then with 2 checks, the actual chance to stay dry is just 1% (0.1*0.1)
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#25 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 14:46:18
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Quote ( Robin Goodey @ July 30th 2018,14:41:27 ) Well given the weather can change at least twice in a 30 min period
Finally.
Something is true.
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#26 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 15:34:33
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You guys completely drifted away from what OP was saying :)
The point was, can weather be dependent on actual geographic location of the circuit as well as time of year. It's my first season, and we got a 40 degrees race in Sweden, followed by 3 degrees race in Greece. Now it's raining in Bahrain, where they have 62mm of rain per year IRL. I know it's a game and it has its own rules which do not have to reflect reality, and I get that for some tracks it would get boring fast, but I think it would be a nice touch.
As for the weather percentages, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a check for each lap. So 80% would mean that it's 80% possible at the beginning of each lap to start raining. In that case, it's completely unsurprising that we didn't have a dry race with this forecast yet.
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#27 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 15:40:55
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Quote ( Andrzej Powalka @ July 30th 2018,15:34:33 ) it's completely unsurprising that we didn't have a dry race with this forecast yet. Sure?
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#28 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 15:45:31
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Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ July 30th 2018,15:40:55 ) Sure? Did you read the full post / sentence or just the part you quoted?
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#29 objavljeno 30 Srp 2018, 17:05:16
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Quote ( Eduardo Fernandes @ July 29th 2018,12:44:28 ) Anyone noticed that the upcoming race in Bahrain (at least I noticed for Rookie) it with 20's on the degrees of temperature, inspite being July and that the circuit is literally in the middle of the desert? How can we change that for future seasons, to fix that inconsistency?
Do you want to see more realistic weather? Quote ( Eduardo Fernandes @ July 29th 2018,13:07:35 ) Yeah but would it be better if they did. At least with a window of margin with the local region?
It will be very very easy to plan in Pro and above levels
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