| Začetnik |
Tema: Sponsor unexplained decision. Opinions please !!! |
25 odgovora
|
|
|
|
#1 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 12:59:03
|
Citat
|
Hi everyone !!!
Pls give me your thoughts about that issue !
Im racing at Amateur - 13 .
I have Commercial: 38 lvl
I was negotiating only with Tycon International at priority level = Very High. The deal was about the "nose" of my car, for 24 races, and about 640.000 per race !!!
Before the last race , the negotiation level progress was 99,4% for me, and the Contested Est avg progress was 80% !!!
So, i was sure that after the race i would have a new sponsor for the "nose" of my car.
( ... wouldnt you thought the same too ? )
Well... SURPRISE !!!
Msg after the race =
Yesterday Season 74, Race 12 Tycon International notified us that they signed a deal with Gergő Gellérfi
What... ??? What... ??? WTF...??? Is that real ... ???
How is possible to loose that deal with 99,4% against 80% ???
Also the guy that take the deal is at Pro - 6 , at 30th position.
Im at Amateur - 13 , at 16th position.
Question= I thought that the sponsors are negotiating only at the same categories. Am i wrong ??
... and even if im wrong, is it possible for a manager from Pro, to make a progress of 20% after a single race ? ( position at last race 21st !!! )
I have to mention that before the last race, i changed the level at very low ( cause i was sure that the deal with Tycon International was almost complete ) and i started negotiation with another sponsor at Very high lvl.
Is it possible that change at the level priority to have as a result to choose the other manager ?
Any opinion will help !!! ( sorry for the long post )
|
|
|
|
|
|
#2 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:03:07
|
Citat
|
Couple of factors here:
- you and Gergõ might not have been the only two negotiators
- he probably started negotiations last season when he was in your current group
|
|
|
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,12:59:03 ) Question= I thought that the sponsors are negotiating only at the same categories. Am i wrong ?? Yes. You are wrong. ( /hu/ManSponsors.asp?Group=Pro%20-%2020 )
|
|
|
|
|
|
#4 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:11:47
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Thijs Rieken @ February 19th 2020,13:03:07 ) Couple of factors here:
- you and Gergõ might not have been the only two negotiators
- he probably started negotiations last season when he was in your current group
Yes , thanks Thijs Rieken, i checked that and is correct. He was at Amateur 13 last seazon.
But the main question is = How did he get the deal , since his progress before the race was only 80% ??? ... and his position at last race was 21st ???
|
|
|
|
|
|
#5 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:11:49 (zadnji uredio19 Velj 2020, 13:14:39 od Lee Harding)
|
Citat
|
For this to have happened we have to assume there where 3 of you on this. (Or more?)
The winner was also close to 100% before last race. Maybe not as close as you where. But the person with the highest total (even past) 100% would have won the sponsor.
So in this case putting it to vlow and adding another meant you could of had something like 101/102. The other guy could have got to something like 105 or more.
|
|
|
|
- there was at least a 3rd manager on it, as such, Gergo had more than 80% progress
- 20% progress with a 21nd place result seems unlikely
- you can only start negotiations with a sponsor in your group, but after promo/relegation, you can continue those negotiations
- if you only have one negotiation, it won't make a difference if you have it on Low/High prio. That only applies to balancing the negotiation priorities if you have more than one
- if two negotiating managers reach 100% at the same time, the one that goes furthest over 100% wins the sponsor (if the spot on the car is free)
|
|
|
|
|
|
#7 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:27:16
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ February 19th 2020,13:14:43 ) - if two negotiating managers reach 100% at the same time, the one that goes furthest over 100% wins the sponsor (if the spot on the car is free)
Thats true ! I guess that i make a mistake to downgrade the lvl of negotiation at Very low, but i was sure for the deal cause the contested progress was only 80%.
I cannot explain how did he take a progress over 20% at a race that he finished 21st.
That makes me wonder..., is it reliable the "Contested avg progress" that we see at the Sponsors negotiations overview???
|
|
|
|
The average is reliable (although rounded down to a whole number).
Your only mistake was assuming it was only you and one other on it ;)
Edit: just to give you an example:
- you at 99%
- Gergo at 99%
- some elusive third manager at 42%
That'll sum up to 240% total, giving an average of 80%
And to be complete: if it would have been only you and Gergo on it, and you had 99%... an avg of 80% would have meant he'd be at 61% or so.
(meaning: the average you see is the average progress of you + the rival negotiations, not an average progress of only the rivals)
|
|
|
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,13:27:16 ) I cannot explain how did he take a progress over 20% at a race that he finished 21st.
Edit: Miel just summed it up perfectly :)
|
|
|
|
@Dimitrios Tsantsaris (A13) As others have said above, more than two were negotiating with the sponsor.
for example
you on 99.4%
Gergő on 99.0%
3rd person on 42%
equals average of 80%
If you set priority to very low you might have gained as little as 1% or 2%, while Gergő gained much more and so had the higher % when the decision was made.
Bad luck for you, but a good lesson, keep it in mind and good luck with sponsors in the future.
EDIT
Lol Miel beat me to the answer while I was writing mine. :)
|
|
|
|
|
|
#11 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:49:35
|
Citat
|
Ok , thanks people! Now i got it !!!
I didnt know that. My mistake that i downgrade the lvl at Very low at last race. I was watchin the "Contested avg progress" and i saw, that the progress was only 6-7% after every race. Soooo i was convinced that i will get the deal.
Well, that was a good lesson !!
Conclusion = Never trust the "Contested avg progress" since you dont know how many managers are involved.
As i see it , the only way to be sure about the avg , is to start negotiations only when the average is at 0.
THANK YOU all people !!! That was very helpful !!! Take care !!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
#12 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 13:53:09
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,13:49:35 ) Conclusion = Never trust the "Contested avg progress" since you dont know how many managers are involved.
There are ways of figuring that out, but you'll need a teammate to confirm it. And some time to go through the "Negotiate with sponsor" page with a magnifying glass.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#13 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 14:02:58
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ February 19th 2020,13:53:09 ) There are ways of figuring that out, but you'll need a teammate to confirm it. And some time to go through the "Negotiate with sponsor" page with a magnifying glass.
I got it. With a teammate manager involve at the sponsor negotiation, you can assume whats goin on !!!
But for me..., from now on, STARTING negotiation only from 0%, and be sure that i will end the deal with Very high lvl until the end !!!
THANKS !!!
Have fun !!!
Take care !!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#14 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 14:18:07
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ February 19th 2020,13:53:09 ) Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,13:49:35 )
Conclusion = Never trust the "Contested avg progress" since you dont know how many managers are involved.
There are ways of figuring that out, but you'll need a teammate to confirm it. And some time to go through the "Negotiate with sponsor" page with a magnifying glass.
Doesn't have to be a teammate. A friendly local in the chatroom *cough* Miel *cough* is all you need :P
|
|
|
|
|
|
#15 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 14:47:04
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,14:02:58 ) and be sure that i will end the deal with Very high lvl until the end !!!
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ February 19th 2020,13:14:43 ) if you only have one negotiation, it won't make a difference if you have it on Low/High prio. That only applies to balancing the negotiation priorities if you have more than one
|
|
|
|
|
|
#16 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 16:11:57
|
Citat
|
It sucks that happened to you, Dimitrios. As Miel said, the only certainty you could have gathered with the info on hands is your rivals had ~140% advance together. That meant there was a wide range of possibilities for which you were winning: any of the rivals at ~40% to 99% advance or so, only losing otherwise. Furthermore, the window in which you were losing required a rival to be below 40% advance, but just a bit (otherwise the sponsor would be signed already), which meant the 3rd wheel should have folded a long time ago, maybe he shouldn't have began the negotiation in the first place, and instead he lost a big chunk of negotiation advance and caused you to lose even more.
Once Roland said this was similar to poker, in the sense the 2nd best hand is the worst hand. Definitely applies. Generally speaking, there are only 2 ways for you to be certain you are leading a negotiation: i. Your advance is higher than the total combined of your rivals, ii. It is impossible there is anybody having better advance than yours. The former isn't under your control: even if you're advancing 20% per race (just an example), 3 rivals advancing at way lower 7% each would obfuscate the analysis. Get used to that, because it will almost always happen (seriously, guys, drop Sparko, I field more advance than you both combined). The latter only happens if your performance is very superior. Which is the sponsorship paradox: the better you perform, the easier the sponsorship game becomes. A mid-table or worse performance forces you to be very attentive, use tools or do some cumbersome manual analysis, and even then you can't guarantee success, just reduce the odds of failure.
|
|
|
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 19th 2020,13:49:35 ) As i see it , the only way to be sure about the avg , is to start negotiations only when the average is at 0.
Might not be the only way, but it can be easier.
Furthermore it can be a way to know where you stand at start, but as the negotiations progress the situation might not be "for sure"
|
|
|
|
|
|
#18 objavljeno 19 Velj 2020, 20:58:35
|
Citat
|
Very explanatory, the explanations.
But I have a doubt.
In case of a tie, in the%, the manager in a higher category, as in the case above (amateur x pro), would the tie break be according to the category (in the case PRO)?
|
|
|
|
Quote ( Antonio Guzzo @ February 19th 2020,20:58:35 ) would the tie break be according to the category (in the case PRO)?
No.
First, the "tie" might not even be a tie as such. Even when 2 managers reach (and is shown as) 100%, there are numbers beyond that, i.e one manager might get to 101% and the other to 105%
Higher value will get the sponsor.
In the unlikely event of both getting to exact same value, other means of determination come to play
|
|
|
|
Antonio, that'll be pretty much impossible to confirm without an admin flat out telling us :)
Once a negotiation on a sponsor is completed and it's slapped on the winning manager's car, all negotiation detail from the last race (who made what progress and ended on which percentage) is never shown.
With details from two managers (PM exchange afterwards, teammates) that both go over 100% on that final negotiation bit, you can more or less prove that the one that went over 100% the furthest had won...
However, you will never be able to confirm with 100% certainty that both managers ended on exactly the same percentage above 100.
My gut feeling would say that the one that had the most progress in the last race would win, but we'll never know
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ February 19th 2020,21:52:00 ) In the unlikely event of both getting to exact same value, other means of determination come to play Maybe? Shorter neogatiation time - first.Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ February 19th 2020,21:53:04 ) but we'll never know Do not give up hope!
|
|
|
|
|
|
#22 objavljeno 20 Velj 2020, 09:42:34
|
Citat
|
Well, i guess a lot of things could happen at the "finish line" of negotiations !
At my case , i m pretty sure, that if i didnt downgrade the level to Very low, and start negotiations with another sponsor, at Very high level, i would win the sponsorship.
I had 99,4%..., i guess the opponent had similar progression, but at last race ,
i finished 11th, and he finished 21st. Probably i would make bigger progression than him. Except if , because he is at Pro, he received more progress... i dont know if that exists.., cause i had never be at Pro lvl. ( i hope the next 2-3 seasons )
Can someone tell us , if at higher levels, the negotiations have different "speeds" ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
#23 objavljeno 20 Velj 2020, 10:06:01
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Dimitrios Tsantsaris @ February 20th 2020,09:42:34 ) Can someone tell us , if at higher levels, the negotiations have different "speeds" ? I think not.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#24 objavljeno 20 Velj 2020, 10:41:05
|
Citat
|
Glad everythings clear now but....
What happened to the FOBY thing? now we share knowledge about the game? :P
|
|
|
|
|
|
#25 objavljeno 20 Velj 2020, 10:58:34
|
Citat
|
Not everything is foby
Simple mathematical understanding of ‘average’ is not a secret, nor is it revealing any hidden game knowledge.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#26 objavljeno 20 Velj 2020, 16:59:22
|
Citat
|
Quote ( Antonio Guzzo @ February 19th 2020,20:58:35 ) Very explanatory, the explanations.
Those are the best kind =]
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Română
Italiano
Português
Português
Français
Polski
Русский
Български
Македонски
Српски
Nederlands
Vlaams
Suomi
Lietuvių
Čeština
Magyar
Eesti keel
Slovenčina
Türkçe
Shqip
Ελληνικά
Bahasa Melayu
Dansk
Pirate
