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Pengarang Topik: The GPRO weather thread 13454 balasan
Jay De Snoo
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Kiriman lama #12496 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:06:28 Sebut 
Quote ( Daneks Britāls @ December 29th 2017,22:55:44 )

Quote ( Jay De Snoo @ December 29th 2017,22:51:40 )

Guess we're all on the same boat then, aren't we?

Nope. For simple reason


A well, You've many many seasons where something simular didn't happen. Then you assumened it couldn't happen, while chances are it could....
if not, relieve me
Daneks Britāls
(Kumpulan Pro - 22)



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Kiriman lama #12497 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:11:02 Sebut 
Quote ( Jay De Snoo @ December 29th 2017,23:06:28 )

A well, You've many many seasons where something simular didn't happen. Then you assumened it couldn't happen, while chances are it could....
if not, relieve me


Here are different tyre suppliers above amateur. But you obviously couldn't know it.
Stuart Foster
(Kumpulan Master - 4)



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Kiriman lama #12498 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:13:21 (terakhir disunting Dis 29 2017, 23:17:51 oleh Stuart Foster) Sebut 
So...wait...no surprise that the probability is higher for sick in helmet random (its three in 649 races for me)

One race in 649 that the rain refuses to re-start for 30 odd laps or whatever it is with a 96% probability...yet more people saying they will quit game / give up supporter because of this than sick in helmet? Are you sure this is a greater reason than that? :) I never see as many people say they will quit after a sick in helmet random as today's strange race, yet the reality is the weather scenario presents same problem for everyone in the race, while sick in helmet is a much more exclusive punishment that is certainly more rage-worthy. Not sure I quite get this logic of some people here:)

And come on...most people with enough races behind them should be aware that those probabilities are for rain starting, not stopping. Of course the shock horror is that it didn't re-start...but I suppose this race is proof that the "least likely" can happen...but it wasn't an improbable scenario. Kyle Morris presented this very well in the thread so hats off to him.

By the way, I was as annoyed by the events as anyone else a I'd have preferred it carried on raining, but this wasn't a weather scenario that absolutely "could not" happen.

Robbert Bultstra
(Kumpulan Rookie - 103)



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Kiriman lama #12499 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:13:31 Sebut 
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ December 29th 2017,22:56:52 )

I may wear the black livery next race. To remember all the cry babies we lost in the great rage-quit of '17.

#jesuisdry

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Robbert Bultstra
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Kiriman lama #12500 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:20:06 Sebut 
Al this shit for a race were everybody has the same problem😂😂😂😂😂.

Come on men😭 are the hollydays so bad???
Roger Fischer
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Kiriman lama #12501 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:20:11 Sebut 
Quote ( Vladimir Alexandrov @ December 29th 2017,21:25:07 )

Guys, I've checked the scripts/logs and the weather forecast just to be sure everything is fine and there really is no bug. Simply this "special" weather forecast produced this weather scenario this time and we will have to go with it. Some smart people can even take some insights about the inner workings of the weather system from this race.




Thats stupid. Why do we have a weather forecast ? Thats not ok. I can also play lotteries in Spain or Turkey.
No more supporter credits from me.
Kyle Morris
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Kiriman lama #12502 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:23:41 Sebut 
I tell you something, my chips will be nice and seasoned for the rest of the life with the amount of saltiness in these forums tonight
Tibor Szuromi
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Kiriman lama #12503 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:24:21 Sebut 
Quote ( Roger Fischer @ December 29th 2017,23:20:11 )


Thats stupid. Why do we have a weather forecast ? Thats not ok. I can also play lotteries in Spain or Turkey.
No more supporter credits from me.

Unfortunately. This has not promoted GPRO. This has to be thought and urgently changed.
Patrik Balogh
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Kiriman lama #12504 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:28:09 Sebut 
Quote ( George Togas @ December 29th 2017,22:13:08 )

Patric Balogh returned today.
Is there any connection with this?
He will have more conspiracy theories to deploy now!

Love it! =)

Edifice double win. Hmm :D (just kidding)
Swaroop Ashruf
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Kiriman lama #12505 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:30:13 Sebut 
Very bad weather forecast 👎👎👎
Daneks Britāls
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Kiriman lama #12506 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:36:46 Sebut 
Quote ( Stuart Foster @ December 29th 2017,23:13:21 )

One race in 649 that the rain refuses to re-start for 30 odd laps or whatever it is with a 96% probability...yet more people saying they will quit game / give up supporter because of this than sick in helmet? Are you sure this is a greater reason than that? :) I never see as many people say they will quit after a sick in helmet random as today's strange race, yet the reality is the weather scenario presents same problem for everyone in the race, while sick in helmet is a much more exclusive punishment that is certainly more rage-worthy. Not sure I quite get this logic of some people here:)


Maybe because most of people already learned that nobody can predict sick in the helmet random. That's just feature. When it happens to you it's weird but it happens, can happen to anyone, forget and move on.

But most of people though so far that they can make an educated guess on weather forecast. Today it apeared that not really. That mean that any race above 0% rain probability will be coin toss (read random). Sometimes it's 30% of the season or even more. Not too much?

When yours team is playing badly then normally most of people just ignore them, not going to stadium and stands is empty....Except a couple of sick fanatics like me who will keep supporting forever. I'm not sure this is the way to go at this moment. We need to keep the people. And make them to support the game.
Jay De Snoo
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Kiriman lama #12507 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:39:09 (terakhir disunting Dis 29 2017, 23:41:11 oleh Jay De Snoo) Sebut 
Quote ( Daneks Britāls @ December 29th 2017,23:11:02 )

Quote ( Jay De Snoo @ December 29th 2017,23:06:28 )

A well, You've many many seasons where something simular didn't happen. Then you assumened it couldn't happen, while chances are it could....
if not, relieve me

Here are different tyre suppliers above amateur. But you obviously couldn't know it.


No obviously I can't :S Kinda weird assumption. You want max CT for a competitor next race? And if so, with or without wobbling their tyres to a certain percentage? (and no that wasn't handed on a silver platter)
Mikie Shaw
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Kiriman lama #12508 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:41:05 Sebut 
i dont understand the problem people have. the weather forecast clearly states the % chance to start raining, the chance of it stopping has never been stated,just because until now it has not stopped on a similar weather forecast people are threatening. just take it as a lesson learned.
Stuart Foster
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Kiriman lama #12509 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:41:06 Sebut 
Daneks, this is the only race in my 649 career that this scenario occurred. It's a one off. Therefor, nothing to get excited about. I would think that in every team every player was caught out by this weather scenario (incluing myself). Anybody who is feeling like quitting or whatever should read the one important matter of facr...it has never, EVER happened before (since S24 R1 at least) that for over 30 laps it didn't start to rain with a 96% chance. So, take it the same as your sick in helmet, forget and move on...cos this won't happen again for another 1,000 races or whatever.
Andras Voczelka
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Kiriman lama #12510 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:41:17 Sebut 
Is this a joke? Bye-bye GPRO:(
Mikie Shaw
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Kiriman lama #12511 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:44:36 Sebut 
Quote ( Stuart Foster @ December 29th 2017,23:41:06 )

this is the only race in my 649 career that this scenario occurred


so anyone who can work out % clearly well within parametres
Róbert László2
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Kiriman lama #12512 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:44:41 Sebut 
Quote ( Mikie Shaw @ December 29th 2017,23:41:05 )

just take it as a lesson learned.


GL with wet race strategy planning, then. :P
Jay De Snoo
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Kiriman lama #12513 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:46:04 Sebut 
Quote ( Mikie Shaw @ December 29th 2017,23:41:05 )

i dont understand the problem people have. the weather forecast clearly states the % chance to start raining, the chance of it stopping has never been stated,just because until now it has not stopped on a similar weather forecast people are threatening. just take it as a lesson learned.


Quote ( Stuart Foster @ December 29th 2017,23:41:06 )

Daneks, this is the only race in my 649 career that this scenario occurred. It's a one off. Therefor, nothing to get excited about. I would think that in every team every player was caught out by this weather scenario (incluing myself). Anybody who is feeling like quitting or whatever should read the one important matter of facr...it has never, EVER happened before (since S24 R1 at least) that for over 30 laps it didn't start to rain with a 96% chance. So, take it the same as your sick in helmet, forget and move on...cos this won't happen again for another 1,000 races or whatever.


Thanks Mikie and Stuart! Exactly how it should be seen.
Ken Neihart
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Kiriman lama #12514 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:46:19 Sebut 
I'm not going to read through all this, but just by some very odd chance no one has said it yet.

This is freaking bullshit to the highest level.
Geoffrey Gill
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Kiriman lama #12515 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:46:57 Sebut 
Quote ( Mikie Shaw @ December 29th 2017,23:41:05 )

i dont understand the problem people have. the weather forecast clearly states the % chance to start raining, the chance of it stopping has never been stated,just because until now it has not stopped on a similar weather forecast people are threatening. just take it as a lesson learned.


Does anything change when the race starts wet? Or does the probability only apply when the track is currently dry?
Tom Hughes
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Kiriman lama #12516 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:47:31 (terakhir disunting Dis 29 2017, 23:48:03 oleh Tom Hughes) Sebut 
I can only assume most people complaining are trolling. That or they have the mentality of a spoiled 8 year old.

An eye opener either way!
Dominiek Van West
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Kiriman lama #12517 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:49:33 Sebut 
Just noticing something. The weather forecast says 'Rain probability', not 'Rain starting probability'... ;)
Daneks Britāls
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Kiriman lama #12518 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:49:39 Sebut 
Quote ( Stuart Foster @ December 29th 2017,23:41:06 )

cos this won't happen again for another 1,000 races or whatever.


I'm not sure about that anymore. And nobody can be sure. That the point.
Mikie Shaw
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Kiriman lama #12519 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:52:57 Sebut 
Quote ( Geoffrey Gill @ December 29th 2017,23:46:57 )

Does anything change when the race starts wet? Or does the probability only apply when the track is currently dry?


if it is dry or wet the chance of it stating to rain or start raining again would be the same in any half hour,the fact it didnt start raining again in what i believe is 2 stints is on the outside of odds but it can happen,and it did
Dominiek Van West
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Kiriman lama #12520 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:54:31 Sebut 
The reason why many of us see it wrong:
If it says 99% rain in first half hour and 0% rain in second half hour we know it will definitely stop before the hour. But it could also stop after the first couple of laps.
But if we see 99% in the second half hour we assume it will stay wet in the first half hour. But the chances of it getting dry in the first half hour are probably the same.

Anyway, never seen a weahterman forecasting the rain saying there is a X% chance of it starting to rain....
Mikie Shaw
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Kiriman lama #12521 dikirim Dis 29 2017, 23:58:59 Sebut 
Quote ( Dominiek Van West @ December 29th 2017,23:54:31 )

If it says 99% rain in first half hour and 0% rain in second half hour we know it will definitely stop before the hour. But it could also stop after the first couple of laps.


wrong, there is no definate it will stop,only start so it could theoretically rain the full stint,thats how i see it.

Quote ( Dominiek Van West @ December 29th 2017,23:54:31 )

But if we see 99% in the second half hour we assume it will stay wet in the first half hour. But the chances of it getting dry in the first half hour are probably the same.


there is no way to know, only calculated from history wrther it will or wont but will ultimately be a guess
Jose Filipe
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Kiriman lama #12522 dikirim Dis 30 2017, 00:02:04 Sebut 
I have not decided if I have the courage to leave the game or not, it's more than 9 years of addiction...
But one thing is certain: I will never again spend time planning races, complete seasons, that's for sure.
I can not understand how it is possible to attract new players, new passions, with this kind of incomprehensible situations that have nothing to do with reality, at least in my point of view.
Stuart thinks this is more natural than the pilot feeling bad in the helmet. I do not know what's worse, I think it's just ridiculous, neither does help to retain managers, and it does not help in any way to promote the game.
Another thing is for sure: I'll never buy credits again, and I'm already sorry I bought the last ones.
It's a shame, since S13 R10 (almost 9 years now) to help support the game :(
Despite everything I think I have made here a number of friends that leads me to not decide to leave already.
Dominiek Van West
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Kiriman lama #12523 dikirim Dis 30 2017, 00:02:58 Sebut 
Quote ( Mikie Shaw @ December 29th 2017,23:58:59 )

Quote ( Dominiek Van West @ December 29th 2017,23:54:31 )

If it says 99% rain in first half hour and 0% rain in second half hour we know it will definitely stop before the hour. But it could also stop after the first couple of laps.

wrong, there is no definate it will stop,only start so it could theoretically rain the full stint,thats how i see it.

Quote ( Dominiek Van West @ December 29th 2017,23:54:31 )

But if we see 99% in the second half hour we assume it will stay wet in the first half hour. But the chances of it getting dry in the first half hour are probably the same.

there is no way to know, only calculated from history wrther it will or wont but will ultimately be a guess

Oh yes, you are right.

Totally illogical though. But Vlad thinks it's logical. Maybe he was really drunk when he thought of this system :)
Andreas Ramann
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Kiriman lama #12524 dikirim Dis 30 2017, 00:06:09 Sebut 
Funny is that we have actually had already 2 rainy races this season, which by far is a lot if we take into a concern the latest seasons. Now we got the 3rd one, and what it did is the opposite - the rain was just a joke at the beginning.
I mean look at these temperatures first - they already seem to be pretty off if we look at these typical forecasts, this right now here just showed that when we may get a race with temps like 50+ then something like this could happen once more.

I race with 0 risks anyways so it didn't concern me that much, but what DID concern is the wet tyres. I was more than sure that it will be wet for 99% of the race so I did put rain tyres for dry weather as well - at that 1 sole point just cost me a lot of money. I would've got a place somewhere near top 10, but what I really got was a 25th because I started to lose 5 seconds per lap to the leader... just insert a nice joke here how to really ruin your finances.

I insert my pray here to people who purchased a new car, went with high risks - and got nothing.
Mikie Shaw
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Kiriman lama #12525 dikirim Dis 30 2017, 00:12:34 Sebut 
nothing is guarenteed. one fact you may want to consider is that you didnt know the race weather forecast until after last race,so, was it really going to be an outcome if the weather was differant?. every season we are faced with it adjust youre planner for the season and do youre best and learn from it.
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