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Topik: Weather Randomness |
37 balasan
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Quote ( Joaquín Quintana @ July 8th 2020,22:47:24 ) Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ July 8th 2020,22:37:24 )
I would like an answer to basic question! #9
I believe a little tweak has been made yeah.
i'm getting old and don't remember all the way back before S34 but I would say that no noticeable change has been done, IMHO the weather formula is the same, even after Kyalami.
During all the Kyalami discussion there were many tips about how weather works, if you follow that you will find that the weather becomes less random and a little bit more predictable (It will always have a random factor but your guesses will tend to be closer)
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Quote ( Tibor Szuromi @ July 9th 2020,07:39:35 ) @Eduardo Sanchez Carenzo (A89) Thanks.
I became clumsy.
Prior to this, I predictedted (S34) with + -2 circle deviation.
It all depends how you look at it.
In 10 seasons you had already cracked the weather and then in another 40+ you are having problems making good guess?
I won't debate with you if there was a change or not in S32, but iit is a fact that some people have solved it and have reached that +/- 2 laps accuracy (including a good if not that close on S62 Kyalami).
Open your mind and look for other factors that you are probably not considering.
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Quote ( Eduardo Sanchez Carenzo @ July 10th 2020,04:13:06 ) In 10 seasons you had already cracked the weather and then in another 40+ you are having problems making good guess?
Or was the one prediction just luck?
Twice a day even a broken clock is the most accurate clock in the world. To many times folks think they have everything figured out because they were lucky or had a lucky guess.
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Quote ( Joaquín Quintana @ July 9th 2020,02:19:44 )
Weirder races has been happening since S62...
So the whole point is wierder races because of wheather randomness are unfair? We all race them.
The real beauty and fun in GPRO is that kind of unpredictable and wierd weather conditions leading to even weirder races, because it really puts to the test all your knowledge about race planning. Be prepared for everything and then some more.
Some times you hit it and some others you don't, but you keep learning and that's the real fun.
Hey, it's not as if we know if it's gonna rain tomorrow, and if it does, we never know how much rain will drop and for how long.
It's not an issue for most of us (I think) and it shouldn't be for a seasoned, much more experienced manager like you. You should just move on to the next challenge, just like any other of us, rookie or veteran.
Otherwise, and with all due respect, if you want to know exactly what'll happen next, maybe you could go all the way back and play Atari again. And don't misunderstand me, Atari is fun too, but just another, less random kind.
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#37 dikirim Jul 10 2020, 10:31:55 (terakhir disunting Jul 10 2020, 10:41:35 oleh Lorne Taylor)
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Quote ( Niels Van Heijster @ July 8th 2020,20:14:22 ) The ones I would consider to be hard to plan for, would be the ones that have several rain showers alternated with a certain number of dry weather laps. That's a whole different ball-game, though in my mind still doable albeit with a bigger margin for "mistakes". But the ones with rain only in the first or last part of the race, should be very doable when you have some sense for the game.
Those are a genuine pain in the _mik'ta_ . You plan as best you can & hope the weather doesn't bugger whatever strategy you decided on.
There's only one good thing: everybody has to deal with the same unknown. Maybe, just maybe, it means I can steal a march by being a bit smarter (for a change ;p ).
If I'm not, well, it's only one race. If every race was like that... 80
Quote ( Joaquín Quintana @ July 8th 2020,21:11:53 ) S62 Kyalami >90% rain probability and stops raining after 13laps. Never happened before
S65 Serres: Same case than Kyalami. Rained lasp 1-21, 37-61 and dry until 80.
S66 Indianapolis: Same case. rained 1-10; 29-73.
S68 Grobnik it stopped raining few laps with 70-75% probability
S75 Slovakiaring: 18/18 times with same weather it stopped raining during first few laps with this 20-30% rain probability... guess what happened? It kep raining until lap23.
That only proves the weather forecasts in GPRO are no better than the real life ones. ;p
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Quote ( Lorne Taylor @ July 10th 2020,10:31:55 ) That only proves the weather forecasts in GPRO are no better than the real life ones. We should strive to be better. :)
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